First Quarter 2009 GDP Numbers

Next week Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) is expected to announce the country's first quarter (1Q2009) GDP numbers.

A number of predictions have been made, ranging from -1% to -4.9%.

I have had the honour to "bet" (albeit with no cash or "in-kind" at stake) with the Economists in the organization that I work for. The only "reward" for correctly predicting the 1Q2009 GDP results is the right to say "I told you so!".

I am not an economist and the only economics subject I took was "ECONS 101". Nonetheless that would not prevent me from making my prediction. 

My prediction is based on whatever indicators my colleague would rattle to me whenever I asked for statistics on industrial production, manufacturing, demand, exports, etc.

Basically my prediction is based on "gut-feel".  No complex computation or model used, just the old, pure "gut-feel"!

I predict that the 1Q2009 GDP would be -3.73% compared to theirs that ranged from -2% to -4%.

We will wait till the official announcement by BNM next week, on 27 May 2009 I was told.  

Whoever predicted correctly or is closest to the announced number would have the right to say "I told you so!"  

Let the "best predictor" wins...