Malaysia's economy contracts 6.2% - The Star Online, 28 May 2009

Well...

The number is out....

What can I say?

I need to check who won the bet?  I certainly did not.  

-3.73% is quite way off -6.2%...  

If 2Q2009 is expected to be quite similar to 1Q2009 results then Malaysia is technically in recession!

Recovery in 3Q and 4Q2009 must be huge to offset 1Q and 2Q2009 to ensure positive GDP growth for 2009.  Would this be possible given the uncertainty in too many fronts?

First Quarter 2009 GDP Numbers

Next week Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) is expected to announce the country's first quarter (1Q2009) GDP numbers.

A number of predictions have been made, ranging from -1% to -4.9%.

I have had the honour to "bet" (albeit with no cash or "in-kind" at stake) with the Economists in the organization that I work for. The only "reward" for correctly predicting the 1Q2009 GDP results is the right to say "I told you so!".

I am not an economist and the only economics subject I took was "ECONS 101". Nonetheless that would not prevent me from making my prediction. 

My prediction is based on whatever indicators my colleague would rattle to me whenever I asked for statistics on industrial production, manufacturing, demand, exports, etc.

Basically my prediction is based on "gut-feel".  No complex computation or model used, just the old, pure "gut-feel"!

I predict that the 1Q2009 GDP would be -3.73% compared to theirs that ranged from -2% to -4%.

We will wait till the official announcement by BNM next week, on 27 May 2009 I was told.  

Whoever predicted correctly or is closest to the announced number would have the right to say "I told you so!"  

Let the "best predictor" wins...